Promoting
Fact-based
Governance

And Tracking America's Regression

Below is a brief summary of three major consequences of the first year of the current Trump administration - developed through Gemini Pro 3.0 in early 2026. Updates will be added annually.


2025 - A Heavy Dose of Chaos



A "Tariff Tax" on Families

In 2025, the administration implemented broad tariffs under the premise that foreign nations would pay the bill. In practice, American importers absorbed the duties and passed the costs directly to consumers, creating what effectively functioned as a regressive sales tax on essentials like clothing, electronics, and toys.

  • Middle-income households saw significant discretionary purchasing power evaporate due to these tariff-driven price increases.

  • This policy shifted the fiscal burden away from the wealthy and onto working families, effectively nullifying recent wage gains in the labor market.

A Stalled Labor Market

Aggressive deportation efforts and restrictive visa policies triggered a severe "labor supply shock" across the economy. Rather than increasing opportunities for native-born workers, the sudden contraction of the workforce crippled key industries—including agriculture, construction, and hospitality—forcing businesses to reduce output and cancel expansion plans.

  • The economy underperformed against baseline trends, ending the year with job growth significantly below projections.

  • A constricted labor supply dragged down Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and ignited inflationary pressure as businesses struggled to find the personnel needed to meet demand.

Regressive Energy Policies

For a decade, the U.S. led the world in decoupling emissions from economic growth. That progress stalled in 2025. As clean energy incentives were repealed, American industry relapsed into reliance on older fuel sources, while global competitors raced ahead with next-generation technologies.

  • Carbon emissions trended upward for the first time since the post-COVID rebound.

  • With the rest of the world decarbonizing, American exporters now face new "carbon border taxes" from the EU, directly undermining our economic competitiveness.


jeff@factbasedgov.org