Promoting
Fact-based
Governance
And Tracking America's Regression
Below is a brief summary of a dozen consequences of the second Trump administration - developed through Gemini Pro 3.0 in late January of 2026. Updates will be added annually.
2025 - The Year of Divergence
1. The Inflationary Decoupling (Trade & Economics)
For the first time in a decade, the US inflation trajectory inverted relative to our G7 peers. While the Eurozone and Japan successfully stabilized inflation near 2.1% in 2025, the United States experienced a localized surge to 4.6% following the Q2 implementation of the Universal Baseline Tariff.
By imposing a 10% across-the-board levy on all imports, the administration enacted what economists define as a regressive consumption tax unique to American households.
The average American family lost an estimated $1,700 in purchasing power this year. For the first time in the 21st century, price parity has shifted so drastically that a basket of basic staples now costs significantly more in Ohio than in Ontario or Bavaria.
2. The Fiscal Canyon (Debt & Deficit)
In 2025, the developed world moved toward fiscal consolidation, but the United States pursued pro-cyclical expansion. With the extension of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) and the restructuring of IRS enforcement, the US deficit widened while the OECD average narrowed.
The US federal deficit for FY 2026 has reached 7.1% of GDP—a level historically associated with deep recessions or major wars.
We are now borrowing money at the fastest rate in the developed world during peacetime. Consequently, net interest outlays on the national debt exceeded $1 trillion for the first time, consuming a larger share of the federal budget than discretionary funding for the entire Defense Department.
3. The Vitality Gap (Healthcare & Outcomes)
While G7 life expectancy rebounded to pre-pandemic levels in 2025, the United States saw continued stagnation. This divergence was accelerated by the expiration of enhanced ACA subsidies and the legislative pivot toward Medicaid "block grants," which reduced federal matching funds.
The percentage of uninsured Americans rose to 12.4% in a single year, while the rate remained near 0% in every other G7 nation due to universal coverage mandates. As insurance coverage contracted, medical bankruptcy filings—a financial risk largely absent in other advanced economies—increased by 22%.
The US is now the only high-income nation where Maternal Mortality rates have trended upward, surpassing pandemic-era highs to reach 34 per 100k.
4. The Efficiency Paradox (Government Stability)
Despite the publicity surrounding the "Department of Government Efficiency" (DOGE), federal operational capacity faced significant disruption in 2025 due to the loss of institutional memory. The reinstatement of Schedule F reclassified 50,000 career civil servants as political appointees, triggering mass resignations of subject-matter experts.
The US ranking on the World Bank’s Government Effectiveness Index suffered a steep decline, falling behind Estonia and Chile.
Instead of efficiency, operational delays became systemic. Backlogs for veteran benefits, federal permitting approval, and Small Business Administration (SBA) loans doubled compared to 2024 as technical expertise was replaced by political loyalty.
5. The Judicial Erosion (Rule of Law)
The "soft power" advantage of the US legal system contracted in 2025. The Executive Branch's effort to exert direct control over the Department of Justice—breaking long-standing post-Watergate norms of prosecutorial independence—shook global markets.
On the World Justice Project (WJP) Rule of Law Index, the US score fell to 0.53, its lowest recorded level, placing it in the same statistical quintile as Hungary and Poland.
For the first time, a plurality of major multinational corporations cited "regulatory unpredictability" as a primary reason for delaying Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in the United States.
6. The Innovation Retreat (Education & R&D)
In 2025, the global economy raced toward an "AI and Quantum" future, but the US education sector was diverted by ideological litigation. The reduction in federal oversight and the billions of dollars cut from Title I funding strained school budgets.
Federal R&D spending as a percentage of GDP dropped toward a 70-year low. While the EU and South Korea increased public R&D funding by 4%, the US cut clean energy research by 22% following the repeal of key provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act.
University enrollments from top international talent dropped by 15%, eroding America's long-term competitive advantage in technological innovation.
7. The Energy Fork (Environment & Climate)
2025 marked the formal US exit from the global green transition consensus. While China and the EU accelerated renewable capacity to secure energy independence, the US re-prioritized hydrocarbon production and withdrew from the Paris Agreement.
US carbon emissions rose by 2.4% in 2025. In a stark contrast of priorities, for every dollar the US government shifted back into fossil fuel subsidies, the EU invested three dollars into grid modernization and storage.
As a consequence, the US lost its "climate equivalency" status. As of January 1, 2026, American manufacturers face billions in tariffs under the EU's "Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism" (CBAM), rendering our heavy industry less competitive globally.
8. The Transparency Blackout (Press Freedom)
The environment for independent journalism darkened significantly in 2025. The expansion of federal libel interpretations and the systematic revocation of press credentials for major outlets chilled investigative reporting.
The US ranking on the World Press Freedom Index plummeted to 57th, the steepest single-year drop recorded for a stable democracy, placing us between Sierra Leone and Kosovo.
The rate of local newspaper closures accelerated by 20% compared to the 2024 baseline. More US counties are now "news deserts" than at any point in American history, limiting local accountability.
9. The Wealth Chasm (Inequality)
The economic policies of 2025 concentrated wealth at a rate unseen since the pre-tax era of the early 20th century. The combination of extended corporate tax cuts and deep reductions to nutritional and housing assistance exacerbated the divide between capital owners and wage earners.
The US Gini Coefficient (measuring inequality) climbed to 0.43, a level more similar to developing economies than G7 peers, while inequality in Canada and France remained stable (~0.30).
Social mobility has stalled. A child born in the bottom income quintile in the US in 2025 now has a statistically lower chance of reaching the middle class than a child born in virtually any other OECD nation.
10. The Rights Regression (Civil Liberties & Gender)
A sharp divergence in civil rights occurred in 2025. While the G7 collectively affirmed gender parity goals and France enshrined reproductive rights, the US became the only G7 nation to restrict access to contraception and IVF at the federal level via the novel application of Comstock Act enforcement.
The US ranking on the Global Gender Gap Report (Health & Survival sub-index) dropped 18 spots in a single year due to restricted access to reproductive healthcare.
A demographic "Brain Drain" was one of many consequences. International graduate student enrollments—the pipeline for future high-skilled female professionals—dropped by 12% compared to 2024, as talent opted for countries with more stable civil liberty frameworks.
11. The Security Divergence (Public Safety)
The data suggests that the 2025 deregulation of firearms did not make America safer. The federal push for "National Reciprocity" and the reallocation of ATF resources hampered efforts to combat interstate gun trafficking.
The US firearm mortality rate rose to 14.8 per 100,000, continuing an outlier trend that diverges sharply from the G7 average of less than 0.5 per 100,000.
A "Violence Tax" was levied on the economy. International tourism to the US stagnated in 2025 despite a global rebound, as allied nations issued travel advisories citing "public safety concerns" as key risks.
12. The Diplomatic Void (Global Influence)
America transitioned toward a policy of unilateralism in 2025. The withdrawal from multilateral aid agreements and signals of NATO conditionalism isolated Washington from its traditional decision-making role.
Global confidence in the US President to "do the right thing" dropped to 18% in key allied nations (according to 2025 Pew Research figures), while confidence in German and French leadership remained above 60%.
For the first time, a plurality of global citizens viewed China as a more predictable actor than the US. Traditional allies have begun forming new trade and defense pacts that exclude the US, reducing American economic leverage and geopolitical influence.